New York City’s November Financial Plan Update will soon be released. CBC’s What to Look For finds that fiscal year 2024 now has a budget gap of $839 million, even after accounting for the use of in-year reserves and estimated reductions from the first 5% Program to Eliminate the Gap (PEG) round. CBC’s analysis estimates that next year’s budget will have a massive gap of $11.3 billion, or 12.5% of total City-funded spending.

What To Look For provides the key data to scrutinize and important questions that arise in assessing the City’s fiscal health and financial plan, including:

• What is the updated estimate for asylum-seeker spending and how will it grow or change in the future?
• How much will this PEG round save and what is the potential impact on services and government efficiency?
• Will the City start to address the fiscal cliffs, and what will happen to programs funded temporarily with federal and City revenue?
• How could new mandates and potential requirements (like the State’s class size law and City housing-voucher expansion) widen the budget gaps?

This analysis refines CBC’s earlier gap estimate based on additional information from the Administration, and the City and State Comptrollers. CBC will continue to provide updated analyses and insights throughout the City’s budget process.