Gov. Cuomo was crystal clear about New York’s need — after more than 10,000 deaths from coronavirus — to take slow, deliberate steps in reopening parts of the local economy.

The Citizens Budget Commission, founded in 1932, has spent decades arguing for less government spending and bigger rainy-day funds. The group now says that the looming city and state deficits caused by the pandemic mean New York needs....less spending and a bigger rainy day fund.

But staffing was a problem before the coronavirus arrived. A November 2018 report by New York City's Citizens Budget Commission found that more than 83% of FDNY emergency calls were medical in nature and only about 2% were fire-related. It also found that firefighters outnumbered EMS workers by about two to one, so the former have been taking an increasing number of medical calls each year despite being less equipped to handle them.

While the mayor's budget update shows an 8.3% decrease in spending, "clear understanding of the trajectory of the budget requires adjustments for the timing of spending, the use of reserves, and assumed federal aid," said Ana Champeny, director of city studies for the watchdog Citizens Budget Commission.

"The reliance on non-recurring federal aid, reserves, and Retiree Health Benefits Trust fund resources to support recurring spending contributes to the significant $5 billion fiscal year 2022 gap that ultimately will have to be addressed," Champeny added.

The city is relying on funding from the state and federal governments to make its pared-back budget work, according to the Citizens Budget Commission. Taking out state and federal money to reflect only municipal funds, the budget actually grows for next year compared with this one, and increases 1.3% against the budget for 2019, the CBC said.

It’s likely the state, facing a budget shortfall itself, will cut aid to the city. If that happens, or if federal aid is more restricted in uses than the city expects, the budget could be in trouble, the CBC said.

State fiscal watchdogs Wednesday provided a sobering picture of New York’s finances that have been decimated by the coronavirus pandemic, with the revenue shortfalls extending for years.

State leaders are anticipating as much as a $10 to $15 billion shortfall in this year’s budget, but the Citizens Budget Commission estimates New York may have to grapple with an even larger deficit — as high as $26 billion in future years.

In looking back on past economic recessions, Dave Friedfel, the budget commission’s director of state studies said: “The second year is more often worse than the first year in projection of revenues.”

The possibility of school cuts is simultaneously a tactic to prod Washington and a very real potential threat, fiscal analysts said. If no help arrives, cuts probably will have to happen. Even if 20% proves an overstatement, the reduction could still be significant.

“The revenue shortfalls are real — this isn’t an attempt to cut spending for some other purpose,” said Dave Friedfel, state studies director for the Citizens Budget Commission of New York, a watchdog group.

“The state really did build its budget on idea it would be doing substantial cuts if it did not get more federal help,” Friedfel said. “The two big areas of state spending are education and Medicaid. So if you have to cut, that’s where you have to go.”

Industry executives and budget watchers fear the effects massive nonpayment of rent would have on the ability of some landlords to make routine payments, increasing the risk of delinquency and possibly foreclosure.

“Rent is part of the life blood of the economy,” said Andrew Rein of the nonprofit Citizens Budget Commission.

At Warby Parker, the reopening is going to come in at least three phases, said Mr. Blumenthal. The company — part technology firm, part retailer, part manufacturer — provides a kind of blueprint for how to return.

Even before the pandemic, some fiscal experts had questioned the M.T.A.’s budget, which relies on what some saw as rosy revenue projections.

“When people asked me two months ago, I said the M.T.A.’s fiscal situation was precarious — and that was during the good times,” said Andrew Rein, the president of the Citizens Budget Commission, a nonprofit watchdog group.

The financial crisis hits at a critical time for the M.T.A., which has made slow but steady improvements to subway and bus service.

Still, Mr. Rein, of the Citizens Budget Commission, said the M.T.A. must strike a careful balance between paying to run the subway and investing in upgrades that will ensure a well-functioning system as the city struggles to return to a semblance of normal life.

After six years of relative prosperity, New York Mayor Bill de Blasio is immersed in his first major crisis.

How he deals with the unprecedented effects of the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic on his city will shape his legacy after he leaves office at the end of next year due to term limits.

“There is no greater test of a mayor than a financial crisis,” said Andrew Rein, president of the watchdog Citizens Budget Commission.

This year, though, is atypical, given the rapid widening of the coronavirus pandemic over six weeks and the unprecedented loss of sales and income tax revenue from business closures, designed to offset virus spread. The pandemic itself, meanwhile, has strained the hospital system.

"There has been nothing ever like this," said Andrew Rein, president of the watchdog Citizens Budget Commission. "This is more like a natural disaster, only global, not national. There are different models aboout how deep it will be and how long it will last. It will be hard to predict."

Andrew Rein, head of the nonpartisan Citizens Budget Commission, said it was reasonable for the city to dip into the general and capital reserves to help offset losses, especially given the depth of the crisis. He also said it's reasonable to dip into the retiree health benefits trust fund, given the fact that the city does not currently have a rainy day fund.

But he cautioned that the mayor’s current plan and hope for more federal aid was not a long-term strategy. "There should be more significant spending reductions and they should be recurring." He said the city faces a huge cliff for fiscal year 2022—a $5 billion gap, despite projecting a $4.4 billion increase in that year's city revenues.

"Despite a fiscal crisis, the budget is growing and the city workforce will grow over the plan,” Rein cautioned. “We should be able to protect New Yorkers' needs, while paring down to core services.

In the past, the CBC has urged the city to consolidate the union welfare funds, which it says could produce $160 million in savings. Rein also believes the city could save a billion dollars by digging into retiree health care plans, and points to the massive subsidies provided to the NYC Ferry system championed by the mayor, which average more than $9 a ride.

"This is not the time to provide a luxury service at a discount cost," Rein said. He added that the city could consider different weekend versus weekday fares.

Andrew Rein, president of the Citizens Budget Commission, a budget watchdog organization cautiously, praised the cuts but warned there aren’t enough to stem more financial hits in the future.

“The key is to balance the pain among and over to the future so we can focus on the core services the mayor has identified: Food, housing, health -- we should be able to pare down to provide those services but do enough so we protect New Yorkers in the future," Rein said. "There will be pain; the key is to manage it well. This is the real test of this administration."