Andrew Rein, president of the Citizens Budget Commission, described the tax break as “mistargeted.”

“If you’re trying to figure out who is in most need of relief, and you want to spend $585 million, it’s not necessarily drivers,” said Rein. “People who drive less fuel efficient cars are not in more need of relief.”

In putting together a New York state budget for the current fiscal year, Albany “does not appear to have sufficiently balanced priorities between relief and recovery now and protecting future New Yorkers from the next emergency or recession,” worries Andrew Rein at the Citizens Budget Commission. For example, the 15% of operating funds that were set aside for reserves amounts to less than half the $40 billion-plus over three years that past recessions have cost the state. Meanwhile, “the budget reportedly adds billions of dollars of recurring spending with apparently no commensurate actions to restrain spending growth in other areas.” That could lead to “significant future fiscal stress, which is especially concerning given the rocky recovery, global instability and inflationary pressures.”

Patrick Orecki of the Citizens Budget Commission said his organization was concerned about the dramatic increase in spending the budget anticipates for 2024 and beyond.

“Of concern is the rate of spending growth in the out years,” Orecki said.

“It looks like a lot of recurring spending which is important because if it’s more than receipts that can support opening up budget gaps in the out years.”

"It is extremely disappointing that the state's leaders have not yet come to agreement on the fiscal year 2023 state budget," said Andrew S. Rein, president of the Citizens Budget Commission.

To have been delivered on time, the state spending plan would have had to have been finalized by last Thursday. But upon returning to the statehouse Monday, lawmakers said they now expect budget talks will run through this week.

The limited window of time for the public to learn about the initiatives contained within the legislation is a cause for concern, Rein said.

"While many important issues are being addressed, delays and lack of time for public and legislative review diminish public accountability and New Yorkers’ confidence that their government can fulfill its obligations well," Rein said.

Sean Campion, research associate at the fiscally conservative Citizens Budget Commission, said that housing voucher programs are “probably among the most effective interventions” that the state can make to assist renters in financial straits. The Citizens Budget Commission does not have an official position on HAVP, and Campion noted that the program would need to “fit within a budget that’s sustainable and affordable” given New York State’s resources.

Patrick Orecki, director of New York State studies for the Citizens Budget Commission, slammed Democrats’ spending splurge as a “missed opportunity” for New York.

“It’s a missed opportunity, frankly, because we’ve never had the opportunity for meaningful savings. Rather than protecting ourselves from risk, we’re creating more risk and more likely to open up budget gaps,” he said.

“Future impacts are even greater than in the past because we raised taxes last year. The question is, how much are you imbalancing the financial plan? In 2026, the budget is just balanced, so you’re opening up budget gaps and either there will be cuts in three years or raising taxes.”

And lawmakers on Monday night deliberated on a proposed stadium for the Buffalo Bills in Western New York, which is expected to cost New York taxpayers a combined $850 million in state and local funding

"We don't have all the information needed to totally assess that deal," said Patrick Orecki of the Citizens Budget Commission, a fiscal watchdog. "Generally, these aren't things that provide a lot of marginal impact beyond what already exists in the economy."

The warning from the Citizens Budget Commission came paired with a lament from the organization that lawmakers and Gov. Kathy Hochul are yet to reach an agreement on a budget plan amid a largely secretive, backroom process.

"While many important issues are being addressed, delays and lack of time for public and legislative review diminish public accountability and New Yorkers’ confidence that their government can fulfill its obligations well," said Andrew Rein, the group's president.

Much of the focus at the state Capitol has centered around potential criminal justice law changes, including measures that would expand the circumstances in which cash bail is required. But Rein is concerned the lesser-watched aspects of the budget -- recurring expenses without the necessary revenues to back them up -- could be "risky business" for the future.

"Any additional recurring spending should be offset by savings elsewhere and not by reducing the amount the executive budget smartly allocated to reserves or by opening budget gaps that will require future service cuts or economically damaging tax increases," he said. "Maintaining reserve deposits proposed by the governor will help protect future New Yorkers from the next recession or emergency."

Experts have warned that vacancy reductions shouldn’t be the city’s chief concern when it comes to the municipal workforce, however. A report from the Citizens Budget Commission last week found that for the most part, Adams’ vacancy reductions won’t keep city agencies from hiring in areas of need, as the city is still authorized to hire 18,000 more full-time positions than it currently employs thanks to existing vacancies across the workforce. “While some agencies and program areas may be understaffed, the challenge for the City is not insufficient vacancies, but rather managerial and operational processes that affect how quickly and efficiently the City can fill priority vacant positions,” Ana Champeny, deputy research director at the Citizens Budget Commission, wrote in an email to City & State.

In one example, the Citizens Budget Commission pointed out that under the citywide savings plan, the Department of Buildings saw 81 vacant positions eliminated, but even with that reduction the department still has 473 vacant positions to be filled, as of this February.

“Delays and lack of time for public and legislative review diminish public accountability and New Yorkers’ confidence that their government can fulfill its obligations well,” said Andrew Rein, president of the Citizens Budget Commission, a nonprofit group focused on state and city finances. “Much of the continuing negotiations center on how much more to spend on an array of recurring and one-time programs. Plain and simple, this is risky business.”

The prior two years, the budget was also late. Both times lawmakers were challenged with adjusting for COVID-19 and abnormal problems state officials need to budget for before wrapping up their annual process.

This year, as lawmakers push for increased spending, budget watchdogs including the comptroller's office and the Citizens Budget Commission have reminded officials to prioritize tucking federal COVID-19 money away into a rainy-day fund that has been depleted during the pandemic rather than spending it in an election year.

Removing 485w from the budget could also lead to a more nuanced approach to incentives through a long-desired tax code overhaul. Though that’s probably a pipe dream.

Until then, the Citizens Budget Commission wrote in a report March 15, “the need for an incentive will remain.”

State lawmakers will soon determine what that incentive looks like.