Whenever the fear, pain and loss of the COVID-19 virus ends in New York, taxpayers will still have a hefty bill to pay.

“The loss of revenue right now to state government is incalculable; you just have no idea,” Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said this week. On Friday Cuomo told New Yorkers to expect the virus, and its impact on life and therefore tax revenues, to linger.

David Friedfel, director of state studies at the independent Citizens Budget Commission, said many financial analysts project a future similar to a recession, when government officials expect a 3.7 percent drop off in revenue.

“The big rub is that the state expected to be up 6.7 percent in revenue, so that becomes a 10% change,” Friedfel said.

Everyone knows New York rents are too damn high, but few know one of the main reasons why: because at least one-third of rent goes toward the building’s property taxes – while many co-ops and condos, especially in fast-appreciating neighborhoods, are taxed far below their value. So the current proposals to reform New York City’s system of property taxation may wind up pitting renters against homeowners.

“On average, the Department of Finance is capturing one-third to one-quarter of the tax value (of co-ops and condos),” Ana Champeny, the director of city studies at the Citizens Budget Commission, tells Commercial Observer. “If you have a half-a-million-dollar co-op right now, your DOF value is probably on the order of $100,000; under the new system it will rise to $500,000. If you have a $10 million condo it’s probably (valued at) $1.4 million now, and it would rise to $10 million (under the new proposals).”

The mayor’s tax commission has recommended axing these rules, moving condos and co-ops into the same class as one- to three-family homes, and assessing all of these properties at fair market value.

Officials at New York's Metropolitan Transportation Authority are studying the financial hit from COVID-19. Related costs range from a labor-intensive disinfecting of the system to an expected ridership decline, according to Chairman Patrick Foye.

"I think it's fair to say that at this point there's been no material impact on the MTA. Having said that, we're trying to minimize every dollar of expense," Foye told reporters Monday during its latest health-crisis briefing at Lower Manhattan headquarters.

City taxpayers provide 71% of the MTA’s non-fare and toll, nonfederal revenue through a combination of local, regional, and state taxes, according to Nora Nussbaum, senior research associate at the watchdog Citizens Budget Commission.

"City taxpayers not only provide substantial support through the city budget, but also pay the bulk of taxes dedicated to the MTA and much of the contribution made from the state budget," she said in a commentary.

Officials from New York City Health + Hospitals are examining the effects of COVID-19 preparation on its already strained bottom line.

The largest municipal healthcare system in the U.S. and the city’s safety-net system, H+H operates 11 acute-care facilities, five skilled nursing facilities and dozens of community-based health clinics.

A December report by the watchdog Citizens Budget Commission said Medicaid accounted for, on average, 54% of patient revenue and 56% of the operating deficit at H+H in recent years.

Without revenue enhancements and cost-cutting, H+H is projected to have operating losses of $1.3 billion to $1.9 billion over four years.

By the end of the month, Albany is supposed to pass a state budget for the next 12 months. By the end of the June, City Hall is required to do the same for New York City. One outcome is for sure: If officials don’t change course, they will set the state and city up for a fiscal disaster as the coronavirus delivers a blow to the economy.

Start with the pre-virus story. Because of rising Medicaid costs and his unwillingness to confront the problem, Gov. Andrew Cuomo began the year facing a $6 billion deficit. (To be specific, the state was $6 billion short of what it expected to spend in the next fiscal year.)

Remember, Cuomo has left the state woefully unprepared for a crisis like this. The state has a measly $3.4 billion in reserves compared with an expected loss of $34 billion in revenue over three years, according to a Citizens Budget Commission analysis. (California boasts almost $20 billion in the bank.)

A collection of good-government organizations and fiscal watchdog groups on Tuesday released a letter raising concerns with how the state budget could make it harder for the state comptroller's office to track spending. ​

The letter points to a measure in the budget plan that broadens what are known as "refunds of appropriation." At the moment, the practice provides that if the state is refunded money from a vendor due to overpayment or error, the spending authority is restored that money.

"We call on you to reject both of these proposals so that the state’s spending is transparent and accurate and the Comptroller’s Office retains its independent constitutional authority to utilize best practices in monitoring state revenues and expenditures and the legislature can preserve its authority in the budget making process," the letter states.

Signing onto the letter included Reinvent Albany, the Citizens Budget Commission, Common Cause, the Fiscal Policy Institute and the League of Women Voters.

A collection of good-government organizations and fiscal watchdog groups on Tuesday released a letter raising concerns with how the state budget could make it harder for the state comptroller's office to track spending. ​

The letter points to a measure in the budget plan that broadens what are known as "refunds of appropriation." At the moment, the practice provides that if the state is refunded money from a vendor due to overpayment or error, the spending authority is restored that money.

Signing onto the letter included Reinvent Albany, the Citizens Budget Commission, Common Cause, the Fiscal Policy Institute and the League of Women Voters.

Officials at New York's Metropolitan Transportation Authority are studying the financial hit from COVID-19. Related costs range from a labor-intensive disinfecting of the system to an expected ridership decline, according to Chairman Patrick Foye.

"I think it's fair to say that at this point there's been no material impact on the MTA. Having said that, we're trying to minimize every dollar of expense," Foye told reporters Monday during its latest health-crisis briefing at Lower Manhattan headquarters.

City taxpayers provide 71% of the MTA’s non-fare and toll, nonfederal revenue through a combination of local, regional, and state taxes, according to Nora Nussbaum, senior research associate at the watchdog Citizens Budget Commission.

New York City could face a $15 to $20 billion shortfall over three years if the next recession is comparable to the previous two, according to the Citizens Budget Commission (CBC), a nonpartisan fiscal watchdog in New York state. Existing reserves, the CBC says, could cover only about $1.25 billion.

Andrew Rein, the CBC president, wrote in the New York Daily News last fall that “an unfortunate byproduct of these otherwise good rules is they prevent the city from using money saved up from prior years to pay for services during ‘rainy days.’”

The stock markets have been slammed. The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate. Some schools are temporarily closing and some businesses are telling employees to work from home.

Airlines are reducing routes. Public and private universities are bringing home some overseas study students.The tourism industry is jittery.

One thing not affected, so far, by the novel coronavirus spread? Albany’s penchant for spending.

Fiscal watchdogs, though, are urging caution, especially given what’s going on in and around New York State with eroding economic confidence and corporate profit problems.

“The state’s financial plan is built on continued economic expansion. If anything were to undermine that expansion or even yield lower growth than forecast the state would come up short," said David Friedfel, director of state studies at the Citizens Budget Commission, a nonpartisan group that for decades has been a watchdog of state budgets.

The rosy fiscal outlook Mayor de Blasio has enjoyed during his more than six years in City Hall will inevitably end — and the people running to replace him say they’re now bracing for the hard times.

The city has benefited from unprecedented uninterrupted economic growth for nearly a decade. This has translated into a city budget that shot up from $75 billion in 2014, de Blasio’s first year in office, to $93 billion last year, and to a city workforce that ballooned by roughly 30,000.

Maria Doulis, head of the fiscal watchdog Citizens Budget Commission, said de Blasio is at least partially responsible.

“The budget is larger. Many new programs have been added,” she said. “What that means is in order to preserve the stability of city services, larger reserves are needed than what the city has.”

New York City could face a $15 to $20 billion shortfall over three years if the next recession is comparable to the previous two, according to the Citizens Budget Commission (CBC), a nonpartisan fiscal watchdog in New York state. Existing reserves, the CBC says, could cover only about $1.25 billion.

Andrew Rein, the CBC president, wrote in the New York Daily News last fall that “an unfortunate byproduct of these otherwise good rules is they prevent the city from using money saved up from prior years to pay for services during ‘rainy days.’”