State legislators are heading into budget negotiations unsure how the new coronavirus, COVID-19, will impact New York's financial health over the next several months.

The uncertainty over the illness, as well as its impact on state finances and Wall Street, is looming as state lawmakers engage in intensifying negotiations on the state budget, which is due by April 1. Last week, leaders from the governor's office and both legislative chambers acknowledged that the disease "is an exceedingly significant downside risk to the economic and revenue forecasts" – and that was before the state confirmed its first case of coronavirus (the number is now up to 89), and before the federal government afforded New York $35 million to combat the illness.

The sentiment echoes that of other economic watchdogs, who have said the state's estimated $700 million in additional revenue this fiscal year should not serve as license to bolster spending.

"Even if the direct impact on New York state is minimal, because New York state revenues are very reliant on the health of Wall Street and the international economy, if the outbreak results in an economic slowdown or recession, it will reduce personal income tax revenues flowing in New York state’s coffers," said Dave Friedfel, the director of state studies for the Citizens Budget Commission.

With the spread of the coronavirus in New York State, some are worried what impact it might have on the state’s budget and finances.

Dave Friedfel with the Citizens Budget Commission said, when it comes to the state spending and revenue side of the issue, the bigger concern right now is revenue.

“Anytime there’s a significant economic or financial issue worldwide, it has a disproportionate impact on New York State’s finances because we get so much of our income from personal income taxes paid from Wall Street, really,” he said.

State lawmakers and fiscal watchdogs have their eye on language in state budget bills that would allow Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo to transfer up to millions of dollars between any department, agency or authority.

David Friedfel, director of state studies at the fiscally conservative Citizens Budget Commission, and state Comptroller Tom DiNapoli have criticized the practice that gives Cuomo authority to move money between agencies and programs — a practice they said clouds the state’s true spending growth and results in funding for projects the Legislature and public may not support.

“When the Legislature votes on a budget, the public believes that’s the budget the state is going to go forward with,” Friedfel said. The changes “would allow the executive to move money around anywhere, including (to fund) things that the Legislature and public may be against.”

Governor Andrew Cuomo claims that New York is a leader in addressing the dangers of climate change. So far, the facts fail to support this.

Since 2010, New York’s gas-fired and dual-use (gas & oil) electric capacity has increased over four times as fast as wind plus other sources of renewable power. Fossil fuels today produce eight times as much electricity as all our renewables, exclusive of hydropower. This movement towards greater fossil fuel use is about to get far worse if the carbon-free Indian Point nuclear plant is shut down and replaced by natural gas.

Solar energy provides just 1.6% of the state’s electric output today. The state government’s climate plan requires that solar energy produce more than 30% of our electric output by 2030, but at the current rate at which solar panels are being installed, this goal won’t be reached for 100 years. A recent comprehensive report from the Citizens Budget Commission, an influential think tank, found that the projected expansion of solar and wind was “likely infeasible.” It seems clear that the state lacks a workable plan to provide the growing amount of carbon-free electricity we will need to address the climate crisis.

The D.S.N.Y. spent four hundred and twenty-two million dollars last year to send trash to landfills—about a third of its budget. Making organics recycling mandatory was estimated in a 2016 report by the Citizens Budget Commission, a fiscally conservative think tank, to cost somewhere between a hundred and seventy-seven million and two hundred and fifty-one million dollars a year. City Hall had no counter-estimate to offer, but those figures include the onetime costs of updating trucks. “Climate justice is not cheap,” Reynoso said. But, he added, “it is the right thing to do.” The city’s current contracts with composting and biogas facilities can handle a modest two hundred and fifty tons a day. However, Reynoso said, “we could pass mandatory organics recycling and make the goes-into-effect date be tomorrow.”

The coronavirus crisis has many wondering how bad the economy will get. In New York, state officials warn that the budget gap may balloon to $15 billion, and could get even worse in coming months. In New York City, Mayor Bill de Blasio has taken the unusual step of calling for $1.3 billion in agencywide cuts to brace for the impact.

Andrew Rein: Short answer, the immediate impact has been very significant – swift, deep and fairly broad. The potentially bigger issue is we still don’t know how much worse it will get or how long it will last. Every downturn is different, and this one appears particularly unprecedented in recent history. The state and city fiscal situations are rapidly deteriorating. Our analysis of prior recessions indicates that a first-year shortfall is typically $9 billion for the state, and would be $5 billion for the city in fiscal year 2021; early estimates from the state budget office and state comptroller indicate the first-year state impact may already be greater. While the future still is uncertain, our estimates place the potential three-year impact based on a typical recession at up to $20 billion for the city and $34 billion for the state.

The New York State budget deadline is one month away, and there’s a lot to pick through in the $178 billion proposal.

When it comes to what’s include in the state budget, David Friedfel with the Citizens Budget Commission says it can vary year-to-year. But most measures have a fiscal impact.

“Sometimes, items like a criminal justice issue, or something like that, may not appear to have a fiscal impact, but it would perhaps change how much spending would happen in the corrections department of the state,” he explained. “Or it may call for an increase — or even a decrease — in local aid to local governments because their responsibilities may change.”

ast May I wrote a column criticizing the practice of including taxi medallion sales revenue in the city’s operating budget and pointed out the perverse incentive it creates to encourage high sales prices. My comments were triggered by the publication of a compelling investigative series on the New York City taxi medallion market in the New York Times.

The series provoked outrage from elected officials, several of whom launched investigations and studies of their own. The City Council appointed a task force, which recently came up with thoughtful recommendations; but the state’s attorney general has thrown a wrench into efforts to responsibly help needy taxi medallion owners by threatening to sue the city to give all their money back to everyone who bought medallions during the ten-year period when prices rose and then fell so dramatically.

In retrospect it looks crazy that prices rose as high as they did, but no one wanted to cast a skeptical eye (except Citizens Budget Commission and other fiscal monitors, of course) on a business that could empower hard-working people to prosper. No one anticipated the rapid and dramatic creation and growth of Uber, Lyft, and other ride-hailing services that have overwhelmed city streets with cars and left taxi drivers scrambling for passengers and income.

Sigh: The best any state leader is offering when it comes to fixing last year’s botched criminal-justice reforms is a deal cooked up behind closed doors and rushed through in the same cockamamie process that produced this mess in the first place.

On Wednesday, state Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins backed Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s call to do it via the state budget, due April 1. But that means the two of them going behind closed doors to cut a deal with Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie — who remains dead-set against any changes.

Cuomo nonsensically claims this closed-door process will be “transparent” — because “we’re having this conversation.” Huh? The key talks will still be secret; New Yorkers won’t learn the details until after they’re passed.

As the Citizens Budget Commission’s David Friedfel argues, what’s needed is stand-alone legislation that lets folks “reach out to elected officials before they vote.”

New York State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli credits a data-driven platform with salvaging billions in revenue that otherwise would have been lost over the past two years.

DiNapoli accepted the Citizen Budget Commission’s Prize of Public Service Innovation award Wednesday night on behalf of Smart Audit, an analytics program the Office of the New York State Comptroller first began using in 2014. He said Smart Audit has identified more than $3 billion in savings and tax collections through identifying improper payments, waste, fraud and missed revenues in the last two years for the office’s State Government Accountability division, which audits New York State, New York City and public authorities.

“What we have tried to do in our Office of State Government Accountability is take a different approach … and to really take advantage of data analytics,” said DiNapoli during his remarks at the CBC’s 88th annual awards dinner in Manhattan. “Transparency, accountability and certainly looking for opportunities to make our state be more efficient and our city and our public authorities, that is our goal.”

The CBC noted that Smart Audit shifting New York SGA’s business model from traditional auditing into one that leverages data analytics has resulted in enhanced efficiencies and ensuring resources are spent as intended. The approach has boosted staff engagement and enabled improper payments to be recouped by auditees while also providing recommendations to prevent such losses in the future, according to Thomas Brodsky, chair of CBC’s Innovation Award Committee.

The CBC also presented its Medal for High Civic Service to the Office of the New York State Attorney General. Former New York State Lt, Richard Ravitch, who helped New York City avoid default in the mid-1970s, received the CBC’s Felix G. Rohayn Award.

When the head of a nonprofit that helps formerly incarcerated people applied for a grant from Manhattan District Attorney Cy Vance Jr.’s multimillion-dollar asset forfeiture fund, he met with a seemingly endless application.

Some legal experts and good-government groups say that setup allows Vance to dole out millions with minimal oversight — and with big potential for conflict.

“The DA is not an administrative agency or the legislature,” said Carol Kellerman, the retired president of the Citizens Budget Commission.

Say what you will about Andrew Cuomo's methods or bedside manner, but there's little denying that he has spent the past decade attempting to put his stamp on long-standing issues that vexed his predecessors.

The Cuomo administration frequently notes, however, that New York spends about $23,000 per student — the highest in the nation and nearly double the national average — and education funding has gone up every year of his tenure.

And the nonpartisan Citizens Budget Commission recently concluded that the state is proposing to spend about $750 million more than is required to provide students with the constitutionally mandated “sound basic education.” The issue is whether those funds go efficiently where they are needed most: According to the governor’s office, the wealthiest school districts spend as much as $36,000 per student thanks to a large property tax base, while the poorest districts spend less than half that amount.