New York could be forced to make more than $1.5 billion in drastic cuts to Medicaid spending over the next five months as the state grapples with unplanned health care costs.

A report from Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli's office has urged the governor to "clarify" his response to the fiscal challenge as soon as possible. The state's plan for addressing the imbalance could be revealed in the mid-year financial plan update that was due at the end of October and is about a week overdue.

The situation is largely a product of a self-imposed restriction on the growth of the state's Medicaid spending that was championed by Cuomo, but hasn't reflected the reality of New York's need in recent years. The underestimated expenses have been driven by increased Medicaid enrollment, the cost of programs such as managed long-term care and the phasing out of federal funding streams, according to the administration.

Additionally, if the state doesn't address the underlying factors that contribute to the rising Medicaid budget, the challenge of unforeseen costs could resurface next year, according to a fiscal watchdog, the Citizens Budget Commission.

CBC Director of State Studies David Friedfel warned that this would be in addition to paying for the delayed Medicaid payments, which he said have the potential to "snowball."

In 1990, 2,245 people were murdered in New York City. In 2018, that number was 295.

Over those 28 years, overall crime has declined dramatically. Arrests for low-level offenses have plummeted, and the city contends that it’s on track to drastically shrink its jail population in order to close the facilities on Rikers Island.

But while New York has taken major steps to reform its criminal justice system, the number of NYPD officers has remained essentially the same since the early aughts.

Today, the NYPD has about 36,000 uniformed officers—down from a peak of 40,285 in the year 2000, but nearly 11,000 more than three decades ago—and a budget of a little less than $6 billion, the vast majority of which is spent on payroll.

The growth of that budget has outpaced that of the Fire Department, Sanitation Department, and the city’s budget overall. An analysis conducted for Gothamist by the Citizens Budget Commission found that since 1980, and adjusted for inflation, the NYPD’s budget has grown an average of 2.1 percent per year. While the city’s budget has grown an average of 1.7 percent.

More than a decade after the last recession, New Yorkers are being asked whether their city should better prepare for the next one.

Strengthening New York’s reserve policies is one factor that could help it win a higher bond rating, Moody’s Investors Service said in a report this year. Even though the credit rating company said the city’s reserves have continued to grow and by 2018 were enough to cover about 10% of its annual revenue, the budget commission says a repeat of the 2008 recession could leave a $20 billion shortfall.

On the back side of New Yorkers’ general election ballot, printed in a tiny font, will be five referendum questions that could shake up the way the city votes, budgets and investigates its police officers.

The questions are proposed changes to the city charter, the document that functions as New York City’s constitution, suggested by this year’s charter revision commission.

QUESTION 4: This proposal would require the city to create a “rainy day fund” to save money for future financial hardships. It would also set minimum budgets for the public advocate and borough presidents’ offices.

The Citizens Budget Commission recommended a yes vote on the question because it backs the rainy day fund, even though the group is not a fan of the budget guarantees.

Several recent incidents have raised concerns about subway crime, and New Yorkers regularly encounter agitated people on the subway who yell and threaten other passengers. One of the murders this year was captured in a graphic phone video that showed the victim struggling with his attackers before shots rang out.

Mr. Cuomo has also pointed to the subway’s rising homeless population as part of a decline in “quality of life issues.”

There were 2,178 homeless people on the subway during one day in January this year, compared to 1,771 last year — a more than 20 percent jump, according to a report by the transit agency. The report recommends that the new M.T.A. officers enforce rules about not sleeping or panhandling on the subway and help with outreach to access shelters.

Expanding the police force will likely add to the transit agency’s financial challenges.

The annual cost for one new officer is nearly $93,000 in the first year, including overtime, health benefits and pension costs, according to a report by the Citizens Budget Commission. Hiring 500 officers and 81 supervisors will cost $56 million in the first year and grow to nearly $120 million per year in a decade.

The MTA has to focus on actually providing reliable transit to riders instead of sinking more money into a police hiring spree that will disproportionately affect low-income riders and riders of color, transit advocates told Streetsblog on Monday.

In June, Gov. Cuomo announced that an additional 500 police officers, drawn from the NYPD, the MTA Police and TBTA police , would be assigned to patrol the subways and buses in order to respond to an increase in assaults on transit employees and to deter fare evasion. That anti-fare evasion effort will be bankrolled in part by $40 million from the office of Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance. The MTA then announced in September that it would hire 500 new MTA police as part of its focus on quality of life crimes.

The decision to hire additional police was made as service cuts appear to be on the table, leading to the incongruous idea that the MTA doesn’t have the money to effectively run trains and buses, but somehow can hire police officers, who will cost an additional $260 million over the life of the 2020-2023 fiscal plan, according to the Citizens Budget Commission. That additional spending would push the projected MTA operating deficit to just a hair under $1 billion.

Question 4: City budget

This proposal would allow the city to employ a “rainy day” fund. State approval would still be required to create the fund.

The city is currently barred from creating this type of fund, though mayoral administrations have found creative ways to squeeze money from one year’s budget for use in another year.

Critics, like the Libertarian Party, say a fund would discourage tax cuts or simply operate as a slush fund for lawmakers. Supporters, including the fiscally conservative Citizens Budget Commission, said the move would provide the city with financial stability.

The other main proposal here would set minimum funding levels for the offices of public advocate and borough presidents.

MTA Chair and CEO Pat Foye says the transit authority’s operating budget is in “dire” condition and independent budget watchdogs are alarmed its deficit is growing to unmanageable levels. Citizens Budget Commission estimates the MTA will be $740 million in the red in 2023 -- and this does not include new debt payments for the new, massive $51.5+ billion 2020-2024 capital plan. Separately, NYPD data shows subway crime is down 3% from last year, and Police Commissioner James O’Neill says the subway, which carries 6 million passengers a day, averages only six major crimes a day.

Given the gaping budget hole -- which recently led to cuts in bus service on the B46 -- and the low crime rate, we wonder how the MTA justifies a costly increase in the size of its police force by 581 more officers and supervisors as first uncovered by Gothamist to address “quality of life issues.” This larger MTA force will cost the authority an additional $260 million more in operating costs over the next four years, as calculated by Citizens Budget Commission, and will force cuts elsewhere in the operating budget -- including, logically, in transit service.

The MTA has to focus on actually providing reliable transit to riders instead of sinking more money into a police hiring spree that will disproportionately affect low-income riders and riders of color, transit advocates told Streetsblog on Monday.



In June, Gov. Cuomo announced that an additional 500 police officers, drawn from the NYPD, the MTA Police and TBTA police , would be assigned to patrol the subways and buses in order to respond to an increase in assaults on transit employees and to deter fare evasion. That anti-fare evasion effort will be bankrolled in part by $40 million from the office of Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance. The MTA then announced in September that it would hire 500 new MTA police as part of its focus on quality of life crimes.



But it’s a wrong priority, experts say.



“It’s the MTA’s fiduciary responsibility to have a transit system that’s best-serving riders and you can’t possibly do that when you’re not spending on core transit service,” Rachael Fauss, a senior analyst at Reinvent Albany said.



The decision to hire additional police was made as service cuts appear to be on the table, leading to the incongruous idea that the MTA doesn’t have the money to effectively run trains and buses, but somehow can hire police officers, who will cost an additional $260 million over the life of the 2020-2023 fiscal plan, according to the Citizens Budget Committee. That additional spending would push the projected MTA operating deficit to just a hair under $1 billion.

Activists and elected officials have also slammed the proposal because it can’t even do the job it’s supposed to do.

Thousands of subway and bus workers picketed Wednesday outside the Metropolitan Transportation Authority headquarters, escalating a contract dispute between the state-controlled authority and the nation’s largest transport local.

Chanting a barnyard expletive during rush hour in Manhattan, members of Transport Workers Union Local 100 directed ire at MTA chairman and chief executive Pat Foye over an unsettled labor contract that expired May 15.

The union represents about 40,000 MTA workers.

Foye has not confirmed that Donohue's descriptions of the MTA's positions are the contract offers, and Foye has said he won’t negotiate in public. MTA spokesman Andrei Berman did not immediately provide a comment Wednesday on the rally. About a half dozen MTA cops protected the lobby of the headquarters at 2 Broadway.

The MTA's deficit is expected to grow to almost $1 billion in four years, according to an analysis released last month by the Citizens Budget Commission.

That the city’s public housing authority, NYCHA, desperately needs $31.8 billion immediately is old news. How the housing authority is going to find that money to make conditions for its 400,000-plus residents livable and how it might spend $30 billion effectively remains an open question.

A new report outlines an ambitious set of strategies to bring the housing authority’s portfolio of buildings to a state of good repair. It’s primary suggestion is to make NYCHA the centerpiece of the city’s affordable housing plan, directing planning and financing resources from the department of Housing Preservation and Development (HPD) and the semi-public Housing Development Corporation (HDC) towards NYCHA. Both organizations are currently tasked with overseeing the mayor’s plan to develop and preserve 300,000 units of income-targeted housing,

In 2017, NYCHA estimated that it needed $31.8 billion in by 2022 and $45.2 billion by 2037. NYCHA’s NextGen 2.0 plan currently expects to raise $12.8 billion through 2027 from its Permanent Affordability Commitment Together or PACT plan, which would use two federal programs—the Rental Assistance Demonstration (RAD) and another mechanism known as Section 18—to transfer 62,000 units from public-housing funding to Section 8 and turn those developments over to private property managers. The NextGen scheme also projects earning $2 billion through 2027 from NYCHA’s infill development plan and calls for raising $1 billion through selling unused air rights on the authority’s parcels.

But the Citizens Budget Commission recently reported that NYCHA’s PACT plan is not on track to transfer 62,000 units by 2027 without additional streams of funding. It also said that NYCHA’s infill construction plan has largely stalled due to resistance from public officials and community organizations.

State legislatures authorize and set conditions for the use of TIF by local governments.