Experts say there’s a lot to like. But much of it won’t get done in the next five years.

The Metropolitan Transportation Authority released the broad strokes of its next five year Capital Program this week. At $51.5 billion, the 2020-2024 plan is the MTA’s most expensive to date, and about $20 billion more expensive than the previous one. Upon revealing the outline of the new plan – the complete version of which is still forthcoming – New York City Transit President Andy Byford said he was “ecstatically happy” about the proposed spending.

What is good about the proposed plan?

Andrew Rein: The plan is ambitious, which is important since improving MTA’s infrastructure and service is necessary for New York’s competitiveness and New Yorkers’ quality of life. From the sparse details so far available, the plan appears to target some of the right priorities. Signal modernization is crucial, and there are a number of projects focused on state of good repair, which must be the top priority if the MTA is to reverse the system’s deterioration and improve service for riders. However, the MTA has yet to make public a comprehensive needs assessment, without which there is no way to determine whether this plan’s investments will be sufficient to maximize progress on bringing the system to a state of good repair, especially considering significant investment in service expansion.

What is bad about the proposed plan?

Andrew Rein: Elements of the financing plan are at risk. The assumed $3 billion in funding from both New York state and New York City are not included in their most recent financial plans. In addition, both have fiscal stress that may impede their ability to contribute. (The state still has not contributed over $7 billion of its commitment to the 2015-19 plan.) The plan relies on $9.8 billion in MTA-backed bonds and pay-as-you-go capital, similar to the 2015-19 plan, but supporting this amount may be challenging given the MTA projects cumulative cash shortfalls of $740 million by 2023, assuming all savings and transformation plans are perfectly executed and delivered. The MTA should update its operating plan and show how this financing will be supported. Federal funding for Phase II of the Second Avenue Subway has not yet been approved, and the federal transit grant formula funding depends on the next federal transportation bill. Finally, bonding out revenue from the new sales tax intercept and real estate transfer tax expansion means that equivalent funding in subsequent capital plans would require additional revenue increases.

Will it get done?

Andrew Rein: This plan is extremely large. It is nearly two-thirds larger than the last plan, of which the MTA has only been able to commit two-thirds. To deliver this plan and complete projects already behind schedule, the MTA would have to increase the pace at which it executes projects. That is a very tall order, and perhaps made more so since the MTA is in the process of changes required by the Transformation and Budget Reduction plans.

A key portion of Mayor de Blasio’s $24 billion public housing rescue plan has stalled, according to the Citizens Budget Commission — blocked by fellow liberals who oppose private development on publicly owned land.

City Hall hoped to score as much as $2 billion in repair money through deals that would put new housing towers with market-rate and affordable apartments on the Housing Authority’s land, only to hit a brick wall from anti-development pols.

“It’s not just that they’re opposing these projects, they’re opposing a lot of these project without presenting any reasonable alternative to raise the cash,” Sean Campion, a housing expert at the Citizens Budget Commission. “The longer they oppose these projects, the more NYCHA’s apartments deteriorate and the more expensive it becomes to fix them.”

De Blasio laid out the ambitious infill development goal in December as his administration labored to prevent a total federal takeover of the embattled agency, swamped by lead and living condition scandals detailed in a bombshell June 2018 lawsuit filed by US prosecutors in Manhattan.

It called for the partial privatization of a third of NYCHA’s units, selling development and air rights owned by the authority and for the infill projects to put a $24 billion dent in the authority’s daunting $38 billion repair bill.

But NYCHA’s half-dozen infill development proposals have gone nowhere over the intervening months, the CBC found.

Questions from transit observers and advocates followed the announcement by New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority of a five-year, $51.5 billion capital program.

MTA officials on Monday outlined the plan, on which the board will vote next week. It includes $40 billion for New York City Transit, which operates the city’s subways, as well as major investments in Long Island and Metro-North railroads.

Andrew Rein, president of the watchdog Citizens Budget Commission, asked whether the MTA is spending money on the right things.

“The MTA has yet to make public a comprehensive needs assessment,” Rein said. “It is unclear whether this plan’s investments will be sufficient to maximize progress on bringing the system to a state of good repair, especially considering significant investment in service expansion.”

The MTA anticipates receiving $10.68 billion from federal funding programs. Another $10 billion will come from bonds backed by newly established revenue sources dedicated to public transportation: a progressive tax on high-end real estate sales and the elimination of the internet tax advantage.

New York City's beleaguered subway system is in for a big cash infusion. The Metropolitan Transportation Authority plans to invest more than $37 billion in the subways over the next five years as part of the massive capital plan it outlined Monday.

Subway upgrades account for the bulk of the MTA's $51.5 billion 2020-2024 Capital Program, the agency's roadmap for shoring up the region's transit infrastructure in the coming years.

The proposal, which will go before the MTA Board next week, includes long-awaited signal upgrades, an extension of the Second Avenue Subway and renovations that will make 70 stations accessible to disabled riders.

The plan nevertheless drew praise from transit and business advocates for its ambition. "Riders were promised these improvements when Albany enacted congestion pricing earlier this year, and Governor Cuomo and the MTA have followed through in commendable fashion with the investments spelled out today," said Colin Wright, the communications director for TransitCenter.

But the Citizens Budget Commission, a fiscal watchdog group, questioned whether the MTA would be able to get the work done on such an aggressive timeline.

"Fully implementing this new plan will require the MTA to accelerate rapidly the pace to execute projects," commission President Andrew S. Rein said in a statement.

While city officials and elections administrators clash over what changes the Board of Elections should make to improve operations and the voting experience, one widely-supported option the city could pursue sits on the back-burner.

A municipal poll workers program would allow the Board of Elections to hire Election Day poll workers from a pool of city employees, significantly reducing the hiring and training burdens for administrators and helping to ensure poll sites are more effectively staffed.

There are roughly 332,000 full-time city employees, according to Citizens Budget Commission, most of which are represented by unions, such as District Council 37, United Federation of Teachers, and the Uniformed Sanitationmen’s Association.

The BOE has also been reticent to allow part-time poll workers to handle problems with ballot scanners -- which are prone to jamming and a major contributor to poll site chaos -- because of the technical expertise required to deal with the machines. Ryan says having an additional team of municipal employees dedicated specifically to clearing simple jams would go far. He has sought a model similar to Los Angeles County’s.

Community development tax break is benefiting the wealthy.

When in 2017 Congress passed a tax incentive program meant to increase investment in low-income communities, dubbed “opportunity zones,” it’s possible lawmakers didn’t scrutinize who exactly would be on the receiving end of those opportunities. As a recent investigation by The New York Times revealed, the program – which allows investors to defer capital gains taxes for investing in opportunity zones designated by governors in each state – has so far been benefiting wealthy investors and residents of high-end developments, not those living in the country’s poorest neighborhoods.

The Opportunity Zones program was a part of congressional Republicans’ and President Donald Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. New York chose to conform with the program, meaning that investors can defer or avoid state and local taxes on capital gains as well. Now experts are drawing attention to the fact that little is known about which projects in New York’s 514 qualified opportunity zones are benefiting, while lawmakers weigh changes to how New York complies with the federal program.

A report released last month by the fiscal policy think tank Citizens Budget Commission pointed out that there is no commitment from federal officials to monitor the program or evaluate how well it’s working. There are also few reporting requirements for investors using the funds or developers benefiting from them. “They have to report how much money they're investing in funds, but not necessarily how that money is being used,” said Sean Campion, senior research associate at CBC. “There's no real way to track how that money is making its way to projects on the ground, and what impacts those projects are having or not having in the surrounding community.”

Individuals and corporations with capital gains from investments are typically taxed on that income, but the Opportunity Zones program allows both groups to sell an asset and reinvest any gains in a “qualified opportunity fund,” an investment vehicle designed to invest in projects in opportunity zones. Individuals and corporations are then able to defer taxes on those capital gains until 2026, and if the investment is held for at least five years, the amount of gains subject to taxation is reduced. It’s reduced even further, if the investment is held for seven years. Additionally, if a person holds on to their opportunity fund investment for 10 years, they’re able to avoid taxation on any new capital gains from that investment. In short – if investors hold on to investments for the right amount of time, they pay less tax on existing capital gains and don’t have to pay any capital gains tax on new gains. The Citizens Budget Commission report found that the tax breaks could lead to annual losses of up to $63 million for the state and $31 million for the city.

One day after the Metropolitan Transportation Authority confirmed it was planning to greatly expand the size of its police force, the state comptroller painted a picture of an agency unable to take on new burdens, particularly in the face of a possible recession.

If the MTA, with all of its existing financial needs, fails to transform itself into a leaner, meaner transit machine, “the consequences could be felt for years to come, and riders could face reduced services, unplanned fare hikes, and deterioration of the system,” said Comptroller Tom DiNapoli in a statement.

The MTA’s insistence on its financial fragility is why its decision to move forward with the hiring of 500 new police officers, first reported by WNYC, strikes some budget analysts as confusing. The expansion is quite a large one. Right now, the MTA employs 783 police officers.

“Adding spending to something that’s already in the hole makes it worse,” said Andrew Rein, the president of the Citizens Budget Commission.

The MTA has yet to announce how much its police hiring spree will cost.

Rein, of the Citizens Budget Commission, also predicted a big financial hit.

“Our best preliminary estimate is that an additional 500 officers over the [financial] plan would add cumulatively $200 million, which would add to the shortfall, bringing it closer to $1 billion over the four years.”

The pied-a-terre tax has reared its head again, with New York Senator Brad Hoylman announcing a renewed fervor to see his bill through to fruition.

The tax, which would add an additional, one-time charge on high-priced non-primary residence purchases, has been part of major budget talks since billionaire Ken Griffin’s $238 million penthouse purchase early this year. Though the tax didn’t make it into the final state budget passed in April, Hoylman—the senator who originally introduced the bill in 2014—told The Real Deal this week that’s he’s bringing back to the floor come 2020.

The bill originally met strong opposition from New York’s real estate scene, though Governor Andrew Cuomo, New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer and a slew of other state representatives appeared to back it.

The backlash was enough to get the tax removed from the 2019 budget, but an increased mansion tax, plus a new transfer tax, did make it through. According to the Citizens Budget Commission, the new taxes will generate about $365 million per year for the state.

New York City’s Economic Development Corporation, the city agency responsible for overseeing the privately operated service, pointed out that ridership has already surpassed initial expectations. The route was expected to carry 410,000 riders per year, but in its first 12 months it beat that number by two thirds, notching more than 680,000 rides.

“NYC Ferry has transformed commutes for hundreds of thousands of Bronxites over the past year,” a spokeswoman for the EDC said. “The Soundview route’s ridership has surpassed our expectations and has provided people living and working in this community with a reliable commuting option.”

But critics also have concerns that that the transit mode isn’t particularly cost effective. This spring, the nonpartisan Citizens Budget Commission predicted that the extension to Throgs Neck would serve 80,000 riders per year — but, given the $2.75-per-ride cost to passengers, public money would have to subsidize the service to the tune of $16 per ride. (The public subsidy on Staten Island Ferry rides is closer to just $5 per ride.)

Cost concerns aside, the newfangled transit mode is already making development more viable in the underserved Bronx neighborhoods where it helps commuters get to Manhattan. Jonathan Squires, an investment sales executive at Cushman & Wakefield, described those districts as “transit deserts” before the boats came to shore.

The city is nudging Gov. Andrew Cuomo to take action on a bill that would streamline construction for city schools — a process the School Construction Authority argues will allow it to build and renovate facilities faster and at a cheaper cost.

In June, the state Legislature passed legislation sponsored by Assemblyman Ed Braunstein and State Sen. Leroy Comrie, that would expand “design-build” authority — a process that shortens the timeframe for capital improvements by allowing design and construction to occur at the same time — to a number of city agencies.

Maria Doulis, vice president of strategy, operation and communications at the Citizens Budget Commission, told said the use of design-build is commonplace across the country.

She noted the city schools’ capital program is enormous and argued “even achieving very minor savings” still adds up to a lot of dollars for New Yorkers — benefiting children who would be in “improved, modern spaces quicker.”

"It's not a panacea and it's not an approach that works in every case but certainly there shouldn't be any restrictions to use it as appropriate and necessary,” Doulis said. “This allows a lot of the work to happen concurrently.”

Later this month, the state-run Metropolitan Transportation Authority will release its five-year plan to spend tens of billions on upgrading subway signals, continuing to build the Second Avenue Subway and improving commuter-rail service.

But throwing money at the problem is not enough. The MTA must spend its money more wisely. The agency already owes nearly $43 billion — and faces declining ridership and nearly a half-billion dollar annual deficit in three years even without a recession. The good news is it’s not that hard to find savings; the only thing needed is political will.

Here’s how the MTA can claw back $10 billion over 10 years:

Savings on the currently expired Transport Workers Union and other union contracts for day-to-day operating workers

Over four years, according to a Citizens Budget Commission estimate, the MTA could save $950 million by forgoing raises for unionized employees. Zero wage increases over a decade could mean $2.5 billion in savings.

Broken elevators, lead paint, pests and more have yet to be handled.

There’s a reason why the New York City Housing Authority was given the title of New York’s worst landlord in 2018.

A Tuesday evening report from NY1 revealed that many of the elevators in the authority’s public housing developments have been on the fritz, preventing residents with disabilities from leaving their homes for days – or even, in some cases, for months.

That’s just the latest embarrassing revelation about maintenance problems plaguing New York City’s public housing; there’s also lead paint, raw sewage, rodents and more.

In 2018, NYCHA was hit with a federal lawsuit to fix its enormous backlog of deferred maintenance. The lawsuit, however, was dropped after New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio agreed to have the housing authority watched over by a federal monitor – after years of federal disinvestment – and to implement more immediate fixes to NYCHA’s ongoing issues. It’s estimated that roughly $32 billion is needed to fix NYCHA’s backlog, but the housing authority said in 2018 it only had about a third of the money it needs.

“Without dramatic change, by 2027, 90% of NYCHA’s housing units will have declined to the point at which they are at risk of no longer being cost-effective to repair,” Carol Kellermann, president of the Citizens Budget Commission, told The New York Times in 2018.