To kick off 2019, lohud reporters are assessing the state of critical issues on their beats. In this story, reporter Thomas C. Zambito looks at the state of transportation in the Lower Hudson Valley.

Getting around the Lower Hudson Valley didn’t get any easier in 2018. In fact, for many, it got worse.

By the numbers
72.5 million: Metro-North ridership at the end of October, down 200,000 from the same point last year.

240: Average number of riders who stand every day on Metro-North trains east of the Hudson during the morning commute.

191: Average number of standing riders on Metro-North trains west of the Hudson during the evening commute.

0: Average number of riders who stand every day on the Port Jervis and Pascack Valley lines.

$10. Citizens Budget Commission estimate of what the new toll on the Cuomo Bridge could be after a freeze on tolls ends in 2020.

More than 50 years ago, one of the main transit links between New York City and New Jersey was struggling to stay in business. It was saved by a political compromise between the governors of the two states.

Today, that rail network, known as the PATH, is as critical as ever to the region’s transportation network. It also loses more money than it ever did, piling up huge deficits that have made it one of the country’s most financially dependent public transit systems.

The Citizens Budget Commission said in 2014 that the PATH had become a “major drain” and was putting a “substantial burden” on the finances of the Port Authority, which also operates the metropolitan area’s three big airports and its seaports. The nonprofit commission recommended finding another source of funding or a different operator for the PATH, but the Port Authority has never really considered trying to offload the train since it is unlikely anyone would be willing to assume such a big burden.

Motorists should not be surprised that "No matter what you call that bridge, better brace now for toll hikes after 2020," according to a Dec. 27 column.

This is how Gov. Andrew Cuomo always intended to find several billion dollars to pay for construction of the new Mario Cuomo Tappan Zee Bridge. He claimed it was finished on time and on budget, which was not the case. The final price-tag, referred to as $3.9 billion, will go up even more. The project contractor is seeking up to $900 million more in additional reimbursement for costs incurred during construction. This includes overtime for project schedule acceleration and change orders to the base contract for additional work.

The Citizens Budget Commission previously reported that tolls on the new bridge would likely increase from $5.00 to $10.50 after 2020.

As we usually do around this time of year, Gotham Gazette asked New York politicos to look into their crystal balls for predictions for the year ahead. Below you'll find insights from elected officials, advocates, analysts, and others who are tuned in to New York politics.

We know that 2019 will be interesting given that Democrats are taking full control of state government, there's a new New York attorney general, there will be a new New York City public advocate, the MTA and NYCHA must be rescued, and more. But what *exactly* will happen? Read below for some ideas.

Carol Kellermann, president of Citizens Budget Commission
-The City Property Tax Commission makes a proposal for a more fair and transparent property tax structure and it is enacted by the NYS Legislature.
-In its upcoming contract negotiations the TWU proposes a three year wage freeze to help address the serious fiscal stress on the MTA.

— Gov. Andrew Cuomo has given his full support to legalizing adult recreational marijuana use, listing an end to pot prohibition as one of his top priorities for 2019.

Cuomo's support for adding New York to the list of states where marijuana has been legalized comes as a retail pot shop less than 10 miles from the New York border is preparing to open within the next few weeks in Pittsfield, Mass.

However, noting New York has not yet begun to put regulations in place yet, it would be prudent for Albany leaders to exercise caution in using any marijuana revenue estimates while assembling the state budget over the next several months, said David Friedfel, director of state studies for the Citizens Budget Commission, a fiscal watchdog group with offices in Albany and New York City.

As New York City's budget cycle begins to heat up, a fiscal watchdog warns of a debt spike in the immediate future.

The Independent Budget Office expects debt service to rise to $8.4 billion in fiscal 2022, the final year of the city's four-year financial plan, from $6.8 billion in fiscal 2020 after adjustments for prepayments as the city supports its capital program, it said in a fiscal outlook released Thursday.

The city has rushed in recent years to build new school facilities. As of September, it has spent $9.1 billion since 2005 to construct more than 98,000 seats. Still, rising enrollment and policy choices have offset the new seats.

"City officials cannot continue to expect the city can build its way to a solution," said Riley Edwards, a Citizens Budget Commission research associate.

CBC recommends directing strategies directed at three goals: using space more efficiently within buildings, reducing intake in crowded buildings and shifting enrollment to underused buildings.

Even before they’ve taken office in January, five newly elected Democratic Senators are taking aim at Gov. Andrew Cuomo over school funding.

School aid is especially important on Long Island where, until this year, the Republican Senate majority had pushed to bring more state money to their school districts, which have some of the nation’s highest school taxes.

“Long Island had typically gotten a lot of education aid that was not need-based,” said David Friedfel, director of State Studies for the Citizens Budget Commission, a spending watchdog group.

If New York legalizes marijuana for non-medical use, the state can also impose new taxes on it.

That is what other state have done, like Colorado, which collected more than $265 million during the most recent fiscal year. But that came four years after legalization.

And in California, $82 million in new tax revenue sounds like a lot, until you realize the state was expecting $185 million.

So the Citizens Budget Commission is warning New York lawmakers not to count their chickens before their hatched when it comes to marijuana money. David Friedfel explains.

The most feasible path toward improving insurance coverage and access to care is to implement a targeted package of reforms rather than a state single-payer system, the Citizens Budget Commission said this week during a presentation in Manhattan.

The budget watchdog group recommended that the state pursue an individual mandate to help draw younger, healthier people to buy insurance if they don't already get coverage through their employer. CBC also said the state could offer a low-cost public health plan, otherwise known as a public option. It said expanding eligibility for subsidies to lower-income immigrants who are not eligible for public insurance programs was also worth exploring as a way to lower the uninsured rate.

"The state should not pursue options that are not currently feasible—single-payer, expanded insurance subsidies for those earning more than 400% of the federal poverty level or price regulation," said Andrew Rein, incoming president of the CBC. "Instead, [the state] should pursue insurance and access improvements."

Bea Grause, president of the Healthcare Association of New York State, said she opposes a single-payer system and is skeptical that New York would be able to obtain the federal waivers necessary to combine the Medicare and Medicaid population into its New York health plan.

"Single-payer is a misnomer," she said during a panel discussion hosted by the CBC. "I really dislike the term. It's really more like fewer payer."

Helen Schaub, 1199SEIU's state director of policy and legislation, gave a lukewarm embrace of the concept but said the debate will help legislators clarify how to improve health care.

"We're not opposed to single-payer as a concept," she said. "As much as we're not opposed to that on the horizon, we're also certainly willing to support interim steps. We're realists about the politics."

Gov. Andrew Cuomo gave his full support Monday to legalizing adult recreational marijuana use, listing an end to pot prohibition as one of his top priorities for 2019.

Cuomo’s support for adding New York to the list of states where marijuana has been legalized comes as a retail pot shop less than 10 miles from the New York border is preparing to open within the next few weeks in Pittsfield, Massachusetts.

“Let’s legalize the adult use of recreational marijuana once and for all,” Cuomo said in Manhattan to New York City Bar Association members.

However, noting New York has not yet begun to put regulations in place yet, it would be prudent for Albany leaders to exercise caution in using any marijuana revenue estimates while assembling the state budget over the next several months, said David Friedfel, director of state studies for the Citizens Budget Commission, a fiscal watchdog group with offices in Albany and New York City.

Even though they are technically no longer city employees, some 41,600 retired New York City police, fire and correction officers received a $12,000 check Dec. 15 known as a “Christmas bonus.”

In addition to their regular pension, eligible retirees annually receive the Variable Supplement Fund (VSF) payment -- or “Christmas bonus,” according to a report from the non partisan Citizens Budget Commission.

The CBC said police and fire retirees who do not receive disability pensions are eligible for the “Christmas bonus.”

“VSF payments are not only a benefit typically not available to retired officers in other jurisdictions, they also are a drain on the fiscal health of the pension funds,” CBC Vice President Maria Doulis said. “Police and fire personnel each have a separate pension fund; correction officers are part of a larger general city employee pension fund.”

Today, the Citizens Budget Commission (CBC) held a conference to discuss the most important fiscal and economic issues facing New York. The conference focused on spurring economic development, adopting affordable energy policies, making forward-looking infrastructure investments, and facilitating the continued transformation of the health care system, according to the program. “There are no easy solutions to these challenges,” notes Edward Skylar, the chair of CBC, and Steven Cohen, the conference chair, “but continued focus and effort is required to make progress.”